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Trading GDP Like A Currency Trader.

Economic data releases are essential for a foreign exchange trader. These important economic indicators create volatility, and plenty of speculation is always surrounding them, and The United States' gross domestic product (GDP) is one such report. Not only do forex (FX) traders continue to monitor this important piece of economic data, they use it to either establish a new position or support a current one.

What Goes into the GDP Report.

Gross domestic product is simply the total market value of all goods and services produced in a particular country. In the case of the United States, this total can be broken down into four main categories: consumption, investment, government expenditures (or spending) and net exports.

Consumption: Final consumption expenditures by households. These can include things like food, rent, fuel and other personal spending. Investment: Business spending on new plants and equipment, as well as household investment in property. Government spending and investment: The total of all government spending, including public employee salaries and defense or social program benefits. Net Exports: Total final exports, minus total imports. A higher net export number is more productive for the economy.

The sum of these numbers is the United States' total gross domestic product, which can be compared to another year's performance in order to derive a percentage of GDP growth or contraction in a particular period.

Gross domestic product figures can be released on a monthly or quarterly basis. For the United States, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a branch of the U. S. Commerce Department, releases final quarterly domestic figures – along with additional advanced or preliminary figures toward the end of each month. This report can also be released in either real or nominal conditions, the former being adjusted for the effects of inflation. The BEA also releases its GDP price index that has been used in competition with both consumer price index (CPI) and the personal consumption expenditures deflator as a gauge of consumer inflation.

Trading the Foreign Exchange Markets.

Like any other piece of important economic data, the gross domestic product report holds a lot of weight for currency traders. It serves as evidence of growth in a productive economy, while signaling contraction in a withering one. As a result, currency traders will tend to seek higher rates of GDP or growth in a belief that interest rates will follow the same direction. If an economy is experiencing a good rate of growth, the benefits will trickle down to the consumer – increasing the likelihood of spending and expansion. In turn, higher spending leads to rising prices, which central banks attempt to tame through interest rate hikes.

Although there are three versions – advanced, preliminary and final – it's the relation between the three that is important, not just the individual releases. Currency professionals will emphasize the advanced reading when trading. But, they won't dismiss any differences when it comes to comparing the advanced with both the preliminary and final readings.

For example, a final reading of 1.5% growth compared to an earlier advanced release of 3.5% is worse off when compared to a similar 1.5% print in both advanced and final readings. A positive growth figure is always good for the economy, but not when a final GDP figure dips below the advanced reading.

What Investors Can Expect.

There are three basic reactions to price action that a trader or investor can expect:

1. A lower-than-expected GDP reading will likely result in a selloff of the domestic currency relative to other currencies. In the case of the U. S., a lower GDP figure would signal an economic contraction and hurt the chances of a rise in U. S. interest rates – lowering the value or attractiveness of U. S. dollar based assets. Additionally, the further below an actual GDP reading is from the estimate, the sharper the decline in the dollar.

2. An expected reading requires a bit more comparison by the FX investor. Here, the analyst or trader will want to compare the current reading to the previous quarter's reading – maybe even the previous year's reading. This way, a better evaluation of the situation can be gathered. Given this factor, you can expect that the resulting price action will tend to be mixed as the market sorts out the details.

3. A higher-than-expected reading will tend to strengthen the underlying currency versus other currencies. Therefore, a higher U. S. GDP figure will benefit the greenback, lending to some appreciation in the U. S. dollar against counter currencies; the higher an actual GDP reading is, the sharper the incline of the dollar's appreciation.

So, let's take a quick look at a recent example:

Source: FX Trek Intellicharts.

In Figure 1, the EUR/USD currency pair fell from the 1.4200 big figure over the past couple of sessions (far right handside of the chart) to establish support just below 1.4050 in the 60-minute time frame. Observe how the euro appreciated by about 50 pips, immediately following the March 28, 2011, release at 8:30 a. m. At that time, it was revealed that the world's largest economy grew by less than what was expected. Instead of rising by an estimated 1.9%, the U. S. grew by an advance figure of only 1.8%. This was also less than the 3.1% from the previous quarter – a visual slowdown in growth. As a result, traders sided with selling a weaker U. S. dollar, helping the euro to retrace its losses and climb even higher through the 1.4200 resistance barrier.

A currency trader looking to take advantage of this opportunity could easily place a buy entry near the support level – adding a relatively narrow stop order of 30-40 pips for risk management sake.

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Reason for Selling USD/CAD :

USD/CAD reaches the top major level and struggle to breakout the top.

Due to the increase of sellers, Our analyst team wait for the confirmation of downward movement.

After the confirmation, the…

+1300 Points Profit Reached Successfully in USD/CAD Sell Signal – FOREX GDP.

Reason for Selling NZD/USD :

The Huge number of Sellers Pressure in NZD/USD makes the market to continue it’s downtrend and it reaches the 5 Month Low.

NZD/USD broken the bottom level 0.7060 with more number of sellers.

+2150 Points Reached Successfully in NZD/USD Sell Signal – FOREX GDP.

Reason for Selling EUR/GBP :

EUR/GBP is moving in an uptrend for long time by forming Higher Highs and Higher lows in H1 Chart.

We wait for the confirmation of Reversal on EUR/GBP.

Finally, Market Breakout the bottom level of…

+1328 Points Profit Reached Successfully in EUR/GBP Sell Signal – FOREX GDP.

Reason for Selling NZD/JPY :

NZD/JPY fails to breakout the Strong Major Level 83 in Daily Chart.

Market starts to fall down from that top level.

NZD/JPY was trading between the ranges in an Uptrend for long time.

+2041 Points Reached in NZD/JPY Sell Signal – FOREX GDP.

Reason for Buying USD/JPY :

USD/JPY moving down in a range for a long time in H1 chart.

After breakout happens at the top level, we expect a Re-test of the previous breakout level for picking up the Good Opportunity trade.

Trading the US Q2 2017 GDP with EUR/USD.

The “new normal” of economic growth has been around 2-2.5%. In 2016, overall GDP growth stood at 1.6%. Economic activity decelerated in the first quarter of 2015 to 1.4% annualized. The euro-zone has surpassed the US in growth.

Everybody is expecting a pickup in the second quarter, to around 2.5% annualized, but there are reasons to curb the expectations. Retail sales have disappointed and consumption is critical to the US economy. The US dollar is in need for some cheering after the recent drops.

This GDP report is important.

Economic growth now means more job gains later, and more jobs growth later imply higher inflation. For the Fed to raise rates, it needs not only CPI to accelerate, and like growth, it has been decelerating in recent months. The Fed’s favorite measure, Core PCE, dropped from a high of 1.8% to 1.4% y/y.

In September, the Fed is expected to begin reducing its balance sheet, and another hike is on the cards for December, but markets see it as 50-50. The outcome of this report could significantly tilt the odds of a hike and the US dollar.

The market impact of this report also stems from its nature: it is the first estimate out of three. The next two are revisions that look into a more distant point in the past.

EUR/USD uptrend.

EUR/USD is in a clear uptrend since the beginning of the year . It reached a 14-year low at 1.0340 and has made its way to the highest levels well over 14 months. The big breakouts have been seen quite lately.

While a correction may be needed after the big moves, the euro enjoys several advantages over the dollar. The ECB’s monetary policy lags behind that of the Fed, but the direction of travel is changing in favor of the euro. Draghi has all but said that tapering is coming in the Autumn. The Fed is hesitant about inflation.

In addition, politics look much better in Europe after Macron’s win and Merkel strong lead in the polls. The high hopes for a growth agenda from Trump are gone and the President is getting into deeper trouble. The pace of news developments is accelerating.

3 Scenarios.

Within expectations : 2.3-2.7%: Such a growth rate would reflect a return to the new normal, but no big bounce back. The dollar is likely to wobble and resume its downward trajectory, perhaps after the weekend. Above expectations : 2.8% or above. A robust growth rate, close to the 3% that President Trump once mentioned or above this level, could serve as a turning point for the dollar, or at least a significant correction to the downtrend. EUR/USD could fall below support and wait for more data next week before deciding if this is only a correction or worse. Below expectations : 2.2% or below: A level that would leave the H1 growth rate significantly under 2%, the lower bound of the new normal, would be quite depressing. EUR/USD could break to higher ground on the announcement and continue the uptrend next week.

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About Author.

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor.

I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me.

Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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