Time Your Forex Trades To Perfection With Open Orders And Positions.
Contents in this article.
The following article is a guestpost by JB Marwood. JB Marwood is an experienced trader with a passion for financial analysis and trading systems. Check out his blog at jbmarwood and enroll in his free trading tools course .
The world is full of forex traders.
Every day, $5 trillion worth of transactions take place around the globe. Yet, despite this, millions of forex traders approach the market in exactly the same way.
They all watch price action or use technical indicators; moving averages, MACD, RSI, trend lines, pivot points, support and resistance lines. By following these technical indicators and patterns, traders hope to find a trend and predict where the market will go next.
But the problem with this approach is that it involves only one component of what really moves the market. It ignores fundamentals, ignores the news, ignores market sentiment and ignores any other market dynamic.
As a trader myself, I realize that technical indicators are useful. But to get more out of the market it’s important to look at other components.
Admittedly, it is not easy to see inside of the market but there are two tools developed by OANDA that I like to keep an eye on, which might help you to make better trading decisions as well.
Open Position Ratios.
The first tool I like to look at is the forex open positions ratios which is a summary of all open positions held by OANDA clients.
This data shows the percentage of traders who are long a currency pair and the percentage who are short. Although the data is restricted to OANDA customers only, since OANDA are a large broker, I’ve found that the data is fairly representative of the forex market as a whole.
click to enlarge.
How to use it.
What you will find when looking at this data is that there is normally a fairly healthy balance between longs and shorts. Most currency pairs will have a long/short ratio that sits in between the 35% – 65% range.
However, when there has been a very strong move in one direction, the open position ratio can become extremely one-sided. And it’s during these extremes that good reversal trades can be found.
This is not a short-term thing. Trades often need to be held for several days in order to give the ratios time to re-balance and for the market to experience a reversal. However, I’ve found that these are good trades to take on, particularly when other factors line up.
Not all markets are equal.
One thing to be aware of is that this technique doesn’t work with gold versus the dollar or with currencies that are being propped up by domestic monetary policy.
For example, not so long ago EUR/CHF position ratios revealed that 90% of open positions were long. But this was simply because the Swiss National Bank had pegged the currency to the euro and everyone knew it. So going against the market in this situation was not effective.
Until of course, the peg was taken away.
click to enlarge.
OANDA Order Book.
The second tool to look at is the OANDA Order Book and this has to be one of my favourite trading tools for the forex market. Again, this is a really useful tool for looking inside the dynamics of the market, instead of just looking at price action alone.
Together with the historical order book these charts show collections of buy and sell orders in the market. So these areas are likely to offer really strong support and resistance levels to take note of.
And what’s also clear is that a large majority of orders are often clustered around round numbers, as Tradeciety already demonstrated here.
So, below you can see the order book for EUR/GBP for the morning of 15 October 2015. On the left shows all the open orders and you can see that there was a large cluster of blue, open sell orders right underneath the 0.7400 level.
A lot of these orders will have been stops, and some will have been break-out orders. At this point, EUR/GBP was trading at 0.7421.
click to enlarge.
So we know from looking at the order book that this 0.7396 – 0.7400 area is going to be key for traders.
If the market stays above this level then we are probably going to stay higher and trade upwards. But once the market touches this level, we are going to see a lot of sell orders come in and overpower the buys. That could easily lead to a strong downward move.
So the following graphic shows the order book and the price chart, around 22 hours later. And at this point EUR/GBP is trading around 0.7350.
click to enlarge.
You can see that the cluster of blue sell orders have disappeared.
Once the key 0.7400 level was broken, the market dropped quickly and continued to fall.
A trader who sold EUR/GBP as the 0.7400 level cleared, would have been able to capture at least 30 – 40 pips on the downside if they were sharp.
Overall, it’s important to consider the other components that make a market and not stick only to price action and technical patterns.
The two tools described here are useful for picking reversals and finding strong support and resistance levels in the market.
They require some skill to identify and they should not be used on their own. But every now and then, these tools show great insight and can help traders find an edge in their forex trading.
The screenshots have been obtained using OANDA‘s trading web tools. Tradeciety does not have any affiliating relationship with Oanda.
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How to interpret an order book by Mini Oanda.
Nowadays the order book is one of the few instruments that provide a trader with truly useful information, which greatly facilitates making trading decisions.
In contrast to various indicators, which are generally meaningless, the Oanda order book displays absolutely valid data on trading positions and open orders of traders.
Mini Oanda tool.
In comparison with the original order book tool, the Mini Oanda has additional functions that help to analyze data. For example, we added a ratio bar for orders and positions, a profit ratio and some labels showing helpful information.
Below you will find basic order book patterns. But now we would like to tell you about special signals from the Mini Oanda tool.
The main thing you should do with the help of the Oanda order book is to look for the market crowd mistakes. If you see that lots of traders buy a currency at certain trade levels, it might be a signal for opening a short trade.
As for labels, they show us a target, a support or a reversal signal.
For example, a “Gravity” label shows us the biggest accumulation of stop-loss orders placed by the crowd, while a “SR” label shows accumulation of limit orders.
An “MV” label stands for a half-volume point.
“Overbought” and “Oversold” labels mean that 80% of buyers and sellers respectively are in profit. So, it might be a reversal signal.
Order book’s patterns cheat sheet.
While the Mini Oanda tool shows us synthetic signals generated based on a mathematical formula, there are also primary signals (patterns).
These are the Oanda order book’s basic patterns for a buy signal:
These are the Oanda order book’s patterns for a sell signal:
Each of these patterns can generate signals separately. However, the more patterns are formed at the same time, the more effective is trading.
Leveraged trading in foreign currency carries a high level of risks and may not be suitable to everyone.
We do not imply or guarantee that you will make a profit and you agree that our team will not be held responsible for your possible losses.
We recommend that you seek independent financial advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading.
Forex Order Book.
A 24-hour summary of open orders and positions held by OANDA's clients .
Historically, only dealing desk traders had this information, placing other traders in the forex market at a disadvantage.
OANDA is the first forex market-maker to break down this barrier with the Forex Order Book and Open Positions Summary. These two utilities are part of OANDA’s suite of decision-making software tools.
With the Forex Order Book, compare OANDA's clients' open orders and positions for any major currency pair. Use the slider in the rate chart to see how the statistics have changed over the past 24-hours.
Open orders: see a snapshot of the trigger points for all open orders held by OANDA's clients. This information could be interpreted as an indicator of the client price expectations that are contributing to natural resistance and support levels.
Open positions: get a snapshot of the entry prices for all open positions currently held by OANDA's clients. This data could be interpreted as an indicator of the market's reaction to price changes, and the pressure on prices due to unrealized profit and loss.
To visit OANDA's Forex Order Book webpage, click here.
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